Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". They simply vote on merit. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? | FiveThirtyEight 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Fact check: Trump-backed Michigan congressional candidate John - CNN Have you looked at the results of these counties? For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Joe Biden (631) Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. 12. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election - NPR.org Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Really stop reading. Trump won the other 18 counties. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Demographics (84) Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Found an error on our site? It gets a lot more interesting. 108,000 people. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. It's happened before. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. The Tipping Points of the 2016 Election - The Atlantic You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! Their concerns are real. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Contributors wanted David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Sumter County, . View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". 03:30. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. TIP: If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). What, if anything, did we miss? Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). Until this year. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. All Rights Reserved. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. Free and open-source. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties were As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. What science tells us about the afterlife. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble Watch Hampton City. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). (Go to the bottom of the page. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. 9 Battleground State Counties That Trump and Biden Need to Win - The More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. Hillary Clinton (578) Watauga has gone for. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". 2016 election critical counties: Vigo, Indiana | CNN Politics Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. Team up with others in your region, and help out by Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. Voter Demographics (9). The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. They're just facts about the vote. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. 10. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Thank you for supporting our journalism. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. That report was issued on Nov. 12. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Outstanding. 8. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. . Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. "They followed through the whole four years. Will That Last?]. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. But both are worth watching. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. There are 391 such counties. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. What results did you discover? Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. 11. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
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